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Strategy Analytics: Fixed Broadband Traffic Growth Slowing

05/20/2021

Strategy Analytics finds that explosive growth in consumer broadband Internet traffic is coming to an end. The Strategy Analytics Service Provider Strategies (SPS) service report, “Is Fixed Broadband Traffic Growth Slowing Down?,” predicts that annual growth in consumer broadband Internet traffic will decline by 82 percent in 2018 – 2028.

Figure 1. Forecast Downstream Bandwidth Demand 2018-2030 (Source: Strategy Analytics)

Figure 1. Forecast Downstream Bandwidth Demand 2018-2030 (Source: Strategy Analytics)

Since 1983, Nielsen’s Law has accurately predicted that the data rate of the highest available broadband service tier for cable consumers grows at a rate of 50 percent per year. This is sometimes taken as a proxy for both broadband service in general and for consumer demand. According to conventional wisdom, it will continue with no end in sight. This appears no longer to be true.

According to Strategy Analytics Senior Analyst Dan Grossman, the author of the report, “It should be no surprise that traffic growth is declining. After all, nothing grows forever. Growth in broadband Internet traffic was driven by a handful of phenomena, most recently the rise of streaming video. As consumers become saturated, we have seen no evidence of another driver to replace it. Not 4K (UHD) or 8K (UHD2) video. Not Augmented Reality. Not Virtual Reality. Not streaming or console games. Not Smart Homes. Broadband Internet is a maturing business, and the industry has to plan for that.”

According to Service Director Phil Kendall, “We see little evidence to suggest that a critical mass of consumers is likely to require more than 100-300 Mbps any time in the next 10 years. There will be many reasons why service providers will need to offer higher headline rates, but the days of prioritizing investment in ‘speeds and feeds’ are coming to an end, to be replaced by a need to focus on latency, reliability, and customer service as sources of differentiation.”

Source: Strategy Analytics, Inc., Commscope

About Strategy Analytics
Strategy Analytics, Inc. is a global leader in supporting companies across their planning lifecycle through a range of customized market research solutions. Our multi-discipline capabilities include: industry research advisory services, customer insights, user experience design and innovation expertise, mobile consumer on-device tracking and business-to-business consulting competencies. With domain expertise in: smart devices, connected cars, intelligent home, service providers, IoT, strategic components and media, Strategy Analytics can develop a solution to meet your specific planning need. For more information, visit us at www.strategyanalytics.com.

Source: Strategy Analytics, Inc.
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For more information about Strategy Analytics
Service Providers: https://www.strategyanalytics.com/access-services/service-providers/service-providers-strategies/about-service-providers

US Contact: Dan Grossman, +1 617 614 0793, dgrossman@strategyanalytics.com
European Contact: Phil Kendall, +44 1908 420, pkendall@strategyanalytics.com

Source: Strategy Analytics

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